Our goal
This programme aims to create an early warning system for climate tipping points that equips the world with the information we need to build resilience and accelerate proactive climate adaptation.
We’re focusing our efforts on two critical systems: the Greenland ice sheet and the subpolar gyre. If these interconnected systems were to cross a tipping point – a threshold of irreversible change – the consequences for biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and wider society would be severe.
Despite the potential impact, we’re poorly equipped to characterise the long-term trends of our climate systems, or predict the future risk of runaway, self-perpetuating change. Our best observational datasets are at a nascent stage, while our best climate models are computationally expensive and do not capture all the physical processes.
We’re bridging this gap by funding interdisciplinary teams to develop a proof-of-concept for an early warning system for climate tipping points that is affordable, sustainable and justified.
We’ll achieve this through a targeted deployment of low-cost sensing systems – from the ocean floor to the upper atmosphere – tested in a multi-year field campaign. Crucially, we are unifying these observations with predictions. By integrating new data with advances in physics- and AI-driven models, we aim to better predict when a system will tip, what the consequences will be, and how quickly that change will unfold.
Read the programme thesis (English)
Read the programme thesis (Kalaallisut)
Read the accessible version of the programme thesis
*This page will be available in Greenlandic soon.
Entering the next phase of the programme
After a year of delivery and in anticipation of a second funding call in September 2026, we’re keen to hear thoughts from our wider community on where we are now and where we should be going next.
Explore the funded projects
We’re bringing together teams of experts in climate science, optics, computer science, mathematics, statistics, and nuclear physics – spanning startups, academia, and non-profit R&D organisations – to define and detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points.
Accelerating towards impact
Explore the ways we’re laying the groundwork for the future sustainability and impact of the programme, including ensuring the data that underpins a future early warning system is trustworthy, engaging with decision-makers to understand what they would need from an early warning system, and building a research ecosystem that is as resilient as the systems we hope to protect.
Meet the programme team
Our Programme Directors are supported by a core team that provides a blend of operational coordination and highly specialised technical expertise.
Gemma Bale + Sarah Bohndiek
Programme Directors
Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek are biomedical physicists working as co-Programme Directors. They both joined ARIA from the University of Cambridge, where Gemma continues to lead teams working on non-invasive brain monitoring, and Sarah in optical imaging technology for earlier cancer detection.
Jess Humphreys
Programme Specialist
Prior to working with ARIA, Jess built a career innovating clinical trial management at tech SMEs, where she led teams developing interactive response technology platforms to streamline trial processes, and oversaw global data management and quality control at neuroimaging facilities. Jess supports ARIA as an operating partner from Pace.
Dan Giles
Science + Technology Lead
Dan has a diverse academic background in applied mathematics, statistics, and computer science, with a focus on developing and enhancing ocean and atmospheric models. He joined ARIA from University College London, where he is a Senior Research Fellow in machine learning for weather and climate sciences.
Annys Rogerson
Programme Support
Annys joins ARIA from a background in government AI and data strategy consulting, where she designed programmes for public-private data sharing and built digital products for UK government services in agile software teams. She holds a Master in Public Policy from the Hertie School of Governance, Berlin, and a first-class degree from UCL. Annys supports ARIA as an operating partner from Pace.
Featured insights
Creating an Arctic alarm
Arctic WWF
Climate extremes are causing disruptions for millions of people around the world, inflicting massive economic damage, and causing strain for fragile ecosystems. Programme Directors Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek explore tipping points – what are the critical thresholds, and when will know if we're approaching that point?
Photo credit: © Ciaran Dowds
Scoping Our Planet
In Scoping Our Planet, we seek to unite frontier platforms, sensors, and AI models to revolutionise our understanding of our Earth system, maximise planetary resilience and revolutionise global business.
Enduring Atmospheric Platforms
This programme aims to develop low-cost, persistent, and autonomous atmospheric platforms.