Forecasting Tipping Points
Backed by £114m, this programme sits within the Resilient Climate and Ecosystems opportunity space and aims to enhance our climate change response by developing an early warning system for tipping points.
Explore the call:
Funding: Forecasting Tipping Points Phase 2 – Concept papers (Closed)
The call for concept papers is now closed. Applications for full proposals will open on 27 October 2026.
The Forecasting Tipping Points programme is entering its second phase, moving from understanding the science of climate tipping points to building a usable early warning system that warns of changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. We are now inviting proposals related to ocean observing, forecasting, and decision-useful climate-evidence translation; we’re also keen to hear from prospective users, partners, and co-funders who could help build a lasting capability.
Learn more about Phase 2 of this programme.
What we’re looking for
We are seeking ambitious, interdisciplinary teams that can fill specific gaps in our portfolio as we build an end-to-end early warning system: in adaptive ocean observation, interannual-to-decadal forecasting, impacts and response assessment, and independent systems integration.
We welcome climate and ocean scientists alongside experts in autonomous systems, sensing, metrology, AI, data assimilation, social-science, decision science, risk, product development and systems engineering, especially where they embed in their teams prospective users from fisheries and marine management, finance, or climate security.
Join a team
We have a live teaming tool that allows applicants to find complementary expertise. After a quick registration, you can browse other researchers and request an introduction from the ARIA team to explore potential collaborations.
How to apply
We will soon be accepting full proposals for projects across all areas of the early warning system. Please note, you do not need to have submitted a concept paper to submit a full proposal.
Concept paper window opening: 18 September 2026
Concept paper submission deadline: 09 October 2026 (14:00 BST)
Full proposals window opening: 27 October 2026
Full proposals submission deadline: 02 December 2026 (14:00 GMT)
Read the call for proposals for more information.
Resources
Call for proposals [PDF - 1.98Mb]
Call for proposals (accessible) [PDF - 930.97Kb]
Planetary Foresight: Envisioning an early warning system for climate tipping points (preprint) [PDF - 848.21Kb]
Applicant guidance
Accessibility support
The projects we have funded were selected from teams and individuals who applied to our previous funding calls for this programme. You can read more about these archived calls below.
How we work
We seek out exceptional scientists and engineers and empower them with the resources and autonomy to turn their ideas into reality.
Applicant guidance
Discover the process of applying for ARIA funding and find key resources.